Expand Your Mind

Ready for the Reds rebuild reboot to be over? Me too.

But what's the quickest path to contending? Dump a few more veterans for #prospects? Sign some big-money free agents?

Nope.

It's expansion.


Now I don't know if you've heard yet, but the Indians blew a 3-1 lead to the stupid Cubs in the World Series. Unfortunately, the Reds will have to play the Cubs approximately 77 times every year, and for the foreseeable future have a lineup that's both younger and better than the one the Reds can put on the diamond.


But if baseball adds 2 teams (as Commissioner Rob Manfred has said is "inevitable") for 32 total teams, there's going to be realignment. They'll likely go to an NFL-style format with 8 divisions of 4 teams each, and the Reds would dramatically enhance their chances of competing by escaping the Cubs.

As an added bonus, expansion and realignment would likely bring the DH to the National League which would benefit the Reds as well. As much as we all love Joey Votto, being able to DH him a couple days a week would help to keep him wearing a Reds jersey until the day he retires.

Why The Reds Would Be Insane to Put Jose Peraza on the Opening Day Roster

There's absolutely no reason for the Reds to put Jose Peraza on the Opening Day Roster.

None.

Peraza has 42 days of MLB service time (for an excellent read on service time, go here: http://redlegnation.com/2016/03/30/time-is-money-and-time/). But if that's TLDR... you need 172 days on the Major League roster to get a year of service. 6 years of service makes you a free agent.

So if Peraza spends roughly 2 months at AAA, he stays in Cincinnati for an entire extra season. So instead of losing him after the 2021 season, they'd have control for an extra year.

There's also the small issue of THERE'S NOWHERE FOR HIM TO PLAY. 2B, SS, and CF are manned, and even if you can spot start him once a week in those positions... that's only 3 starts a week. It's not like you can use him as a defensive replacement for BP, Cozart, or Hamilton either.

So even in the best case scenario where he gets 3 starts a week for 2 months... you're trading maybe 100 plate appearances of a 21-year old for 600 plate appearances in 2022. Is there a planet where that makes any sense?

And if somehow you still aren't convinced... there's the small issue that Ivan De Jesus is a better 2016 option. "Ivan De Jesus?!?" I hear you scoff. Yes, Ivan De Jesus. De Jesus has played 2B, SS, and 3B at the MLB level. He's also a better hitter than Peraza right now.

De Jesus 2015 AAA .303/.378/.384 (.762 OPS)
De Jesus 2016 ST     .280/.333/.400 (.733 OPS)
Peraza 2015 AAA    .293/.316/.378 (.694 OPS)
Peraza 2016 ST        .286/.305/.393 (.698 OPS)

Is Jose Peraza going to be better than Ivan De Jesus someday? The Reds seem to think so. But in a lost 2016 for the Redlegs, there's no reason to lose a year of Peraza too.

Uncle Walt and the Checkbook: The Good, The Bad, and The Relievers

Since Walt Jocketty was elevated to the big office in April of 2008, the Reds haven't done much in free agency.

Under Walt's supervision (though not officially GM), the Reds signed the immortal Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. Patterson put up a sterling line of .205/.238/.344 while appearing in 135 games. Not the best start, but I'm sure this was somehow Wayne Krivsky's fault.

After watching the 2008 Reds go 74-88 and finish 5th (but not last! thanks Pirates) while he sat on the sidelines evaluating talent, WJ starting rebuilding the Reds in the Cardinals image. Walt put a dent in the pocketbook with the signings of mildly forgotten reliever Mike Lincoln (2 years/$4 million,-0.4 WAR) and creatively spelled OF Laynce Nix (1 year/$600k, 1.0 WAR). He stepped up his game by giving 39-year old reliever Arthur Rhodes a 2 year, $4 million contract that somehow worked out (2.9 WAR), with Rhodes earning his lone All-Star Game appearance in 2010.

WJ continued his makeover by bringing in a new center fielder to replace Patterson. Unfortunately for the Reds, that center fielder was Willy Taveras. Fresh off a 0.0 WAR season with the Rockies, Walt felt he owed him a 2-year/$6.25 million dollar contract. Taveras shockingly failed to deliver with a .240/.275/.285 slash line in 102 games, leading off most games with an out. WJ also added professional winner Jonny Gomes on a minor league deal.

All that work resulted in the Reds going 78-84 and finishing 4th in the Central (thanks Astros and Pirates). Walt restructured veteran leader Scott Rolen's contract into a 3 year/$23.6 million deal (6.3 WAR). Rolen responded with his final great season, putting up 4.1 WAR in 2010 and appearing in the All Star Game. Veteran leader Orlando Cabrera signed up to start at short on a 1 year/$2 million deal (0.6 WAR). Veteran leader Miguel Cairo joined the party with a 1 year/$500k contract (0.7 WAR). Jocketty also inked Aroldis Chapman to a 6 year/$30 million deal (7.5 WAR so far) that had the Reds at the time thinking they had signed a top-of-the-rotation starter. Or something like that.

2010 was the year that it all came together for the Reds. With breakout seasons from Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, the Reds finished first in the division. And with that, Walt kicked back and relaxed.



Over the last 5 years, Walt hasn't signed many players of consequence from outside the organization. Most of them were benchwarmers or guys brought in on minor league deals (Fred Lewis, Jack Hannahan, Brayan Pena, Skip Schumaker, Willie Harris, Dioner Navarro, Xavier Paul, Cesar Izturis, Manny Parra, Nick Papagiorgio, Derrick Robinson, Roger Bernadina, Jumbo Diaz, Ramon Santiago).

The only free agents expected to play a major role have been former Cardinals shortstop Edgar Renteria (1 year/$2.1 million (0.7 WAR)) and outfielder Ryan Ludwick (2 years/$2.5 million (2.0 WAR)). Closer Ryan Madson (1 year/$8.5 million) never threw a pitch for the team. Cuban pitcher Raisel Iglesias was recently signed to a 6 year, $27 million deal.



The one place Walt has been active has been in signing current Reds to extensions. A summary:
THE GOOD
Bronson Arroyo 2010 - 3 years/$35 million (5.0 WAR)
Jay Bruce 2010 - 6 years/$51 million (8.3 WAR so far)
Joey Votto 2011 - 3 years/$38 million (18.5 WAR)
Johnny Cueto 2011 - 5 years/$37 million (18.7 WAR so far)
Ryan Hanigan 2011 - 3 years/$4 million (3.2 WAR)

THE BAD
Miguel Cairo 2011 - 2 years/$2 million (0.3 WAR)
Joey Votto 2012 - 10 years/$225 million (3.1 WAR so far)
Brandon Phillips 2012 - 6 years/$72.5 million (8.4 WAR so far)
Homer Bailey 2014 - 6 years/$105 million (1.2 WAR so far)
Ryan Ludwick 2012 - 2 years/$15 million (-1.5 WAR)

THE RELIEVERS
Nick Masset 2010 - 2 years/$2.58 million deal (1.1 WAR)
Nick Masset 2012 - 2 years/$5.5 million (0.0 WAR)
Jose Arredondo 2012 - 2 years/$2 million (0.7 WAR)
Sean Marshall 2012 - 3 years/$16.5 million (-0.3 WAR)
Jonathan Broxton 2012 - 3 years/$21 million (1.5 WAR, traded)
Logan Ondrusek 2013 - 2 years/$2.3 million (-0.7 WAR)
Manny Parra 2013 - 2 years/$5.5 million (-0.6 WAR so far)


By looking at Walt's extensions, we can see that he has an affinity for locking his prices in on relievers, often to the detriment of the bullpen. His early extensions were good. Bruce, Cueto, and the initial Votto contract all worked out nicely. Then there's basically everything since. The jury is still out, but most of them aren't looking favorable at this point.

So how do we judge Walt Jocketty? Is the complete lack of depth on the 2014-15 Reds his fault? Probably. Is it on him that everybody got hurt? Not really. Should we blame him for the fact that the bullpen has been terrible? Definitely.

Man, I really hope Walt isn't in charge of the rebuild.

What if the Browns only drafted QBs?

What if the Browns just used their top 3 picks this year on quarterbacks? It's a seemingly drunken idea that hit me after my third cup of coffee this morning.

So let's go back in New Browns history (fuck you Modell) and see what would have happened if the Browns used their top 3 picks to only pick QBs. Since we're pretending to not be able to see the future, I'll take the next highest drafted QB as the Browns pick.

There's plenty more bad decisions we could slice by seeing who else was available at that draft spot, but it might cause me to have to start drinking way earlier than planned today.

1999 - round - overall - actual pick - potential pick
1-1 - Tim Couch - well, he was a QB so he stays, but umm McNabb or Culpepper
2-32 - Kevin Johnson - Shaun King
2-45 - Rahim Abdullah - Brock Huard

2000
1-1 - Courtney Brown - Chad Pennington
2 - 32 - Dennis Northcutt - Giovanni Carmazzi
3 - 63 - Travis Prentice - Chris Redman
see also Brady, Tom

2001
1 - 3 - Gerard Warren - Drew Brees
2 - 33 - Quincy Morgan - Quincy Carter
3 - 65 - James Jackson - Marques Tuiasosopo

2002
1 - 16 - William Green - Patrick Ramsay
2 - 47 - Andre Davis - Josh McCown
3 - 76 - Melvin Fowler - David Garrard

2003
1 - 21 - Jeff Faine - Rex Grossman
2 - 52 - Chaun Thompson - Dave Ragone
3 - 84 - Chris Crocker - Chris Simms

2004
1 - 6 - Kellen Winslow - Ben Turdburger
2 - 59 - Sean Jones - Matt Schaub
4 - 106 - Luke McCown - hey look it's a QB, but Craig Krenzel was available #winner

2005
1 - 3 - Braylon Edwards - Aaron Rodgers, with Jason Campbell coming right after him
2 - 34 - Brodney Pool -somehow Chaz Frye was the next QB drafted
3 - 67 - Chaz Frye - just FYI Kyle Orton, Derek Anderson, Matt Cassel, and Ryan Fitzpatrick were still on the board here

2006
1 - 13 - Kamerian Wimbley - Kellen Clemens
2 - 34 - D'Qwell Jackson - Tarvaris Jackson
3 - 78 - Travis Wilson - Charlie Whitehurst

OK, time for a Clorox break. While there were a few solutions to the Browns QB problem outbreak epidemic, it's much more depressing to see the number of flat out horrible picks. 2006 was the first year that they took 2 somewhat productive players. Let's continue the pain...

2007
1 - 3 - Joe Thomas - Kevin Kolb
1 - 22 - Brady Quinn - gross
2 - 36 - (traded for Quinn) - John Beck
2 - 53 - Eric Wright -  Drew Stanton

2008
1 - 22 - (traded for Quinn) - Brian Brohm
4 - 104 - Beau Bell - John David Booty
4 - 111 - Martin Rucker - Dennis Dixon
6 - 190 - Ahtyba Rubin - Andre Woodson
still on board - Matt Flynn

2009
1 - 21 - Alex Mack - Pat White
2 - 36 - Brian Robiskie - Stephen McGee
2 - 50 - Mohammad Massaquoi - Rhett Bomar

2010
1 - 7 - Joe Haden - Tim Tebow
2 - 38 - TJ Ward - Jimmy Claussen
2 - 59 - Montario Hardesty - Colt McCoy

2011
1 - 21 - Phil Taylor - Andy Dalton
2 - 37 - Jabaal Sheard - Ryan Mallett (missed Colin Kaepernick by 1 pick)
2 - 59 - Greg Little - Ricky Stanzi

2012
1 - 3 - Trent Richardson - Ryan Tannehill
1 - 22 - Brandon Weeden - old
2 - 37 - Mitchell Schwartz - Brock Osweiler
still on board - Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins

2013
1 - 6 - Barkevious Mingo - EJ Manuel
3 - 68 - Leon McFadden - Mike Glennon
6 - 175 - Jamoris Slaughter - Brad Sorensen

See? The Browns could have solved their QB problem back in 2001 just by taking Drew Brees. Then they could have spent the last 13 years drafting running backs.

The Defense of Ryan Hanigan

Notice I didn't call it In Defense of Ryan Hanigan.

First, several thousand caveats:
I'm not saying that I think that Ryan Hanigan should get 90% of the starts in 2014. I agree that Devin Mesoraco needs to get more playing time. Yes, Mes is the future. Yes, Hanigan sucked as a hitter in 2013. He was hurt all season, and I don't think his ability to hit just vanished overnight. If he returns even to a bit below his career averages, he'll be fine. His career BABIP is .283. His 2013 BABIP was .216.

What I want to show is that Ryan Hanigan's contributions to the Reds are being severely undervalued. We'll start with controlling the running game, which everyone agrees is important.

2013 stats:

	PB	WP	SBO	SB	CS	CS%	SB2	CS2	SB3	CS3	RBA
Devin Mesoraco	4	22	1183	45	18	29%	38	16	7	2	101
Ryan Hanigan	3	20	776	18	15	45%	15	10	3	5	63
League Average						28%
Team Total	8	44	2085	70	35	33%	58	28	12	7	175

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/22/2013.

Hanigan throws out 45% of runners, and has led the league percentage-wise for the past two years. He only allowed 18 stolen bases in 72 games 2013, so not only is he throwing out runners, but they are barely trying against him. Mes threw out 29% of runners this year, up from 20% last year, but still allowed 45 stolen bases in 97 games in 2013. That's a runner nearly every other game advancing for free.

Some people dismiss the value of pitch framing, but stats have shown that turning a single ball into a strike is worth about 0.133 runs. Whether that amount is inflated or not, there is a definite skill that some catchers have that has a positive contribution to winning a baseball game. Mes rates as a slightly below average framer, while Hanigan rates as one of the top 10 in the game.

Here, we'll take a look at the numbers for all Reds pitchers for 2012 and 2013, to see if we can tease out some info. SO/BB would seem to be the most important stat for trying to determine whether a catcher can turn a couple of balls into strikes.

The numbers for 2012:

Split	G	IP	ERA	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	tOPS+
Ryan Hanigan	110	877.0	3.04	3.11	.239	.297	.373	.671	.284	93
Devin Mesoraco	53	420.2	4.19	2.52	.268	.327	.433	.760	.312	118

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/22/2013.

Hanigan's SO/BB is .59 better than Mesoraco's, with a corresponding 29 point drop in BA and 30 points worth of OBP.

2013:

Split	G	IP	ERA	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	tOPS+
Ryan Hanigan	72	589.2	3.40	3.18	.227	.288	.388	.676	.261	98
Devin Mesoraco	97	782.0	3.40	2.69	.243	.309	.383	.692	.288	103

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/22/2013.

Hanigan's SO/BB numbers are .49 better than Mesoraco's, contributing to a BA that's 16 points lower and an OBP that's 21 points lower. So Mes is closing the gap, but Hanigan is still much better at this point.

Hanigan's BABIP number is also lower, which may indicate he's getting pitchers to locate better on the edges of the zone.

But maybe Hanigan's numbers are skewed based on the pitchers. After all, he's Cueto's personal guy. Let's look at a few pitchers' numbers from 2013 where they both caught multiple games.

Latos 2013

Split	G	IP	ERA	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	tOPS+
Ryan Hanigan	6	40.2	3.10	4.89	.242	.288	.403	.690	.307	105
Devin Mesoraco	26	170.0	3.18	2.92	.248	.309	.354	.663	.305	99

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/22/2013.

Bailey 2013

Split	G	IP	ERA	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	tOPS+
Ryan Hanigan	20	136.0	2.71	3.79	.190	.253	.298	.551	.235	68
Devin Mesoraco	5	23.0	7.83	1.82	.367	.436	.622	1.059	.425	218

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/22/2013.

Arroyo 2013

Split	G	IP	ERA	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	tOPS+
Ryan Hanigan	24	151.0	3.64	3.76	.252	.289	.448	.737	.258	100
Devin Mesoraco	8	51.0	4.24	3.33	.275	.306	.425	.731	.299	101

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/22/2013.

Cingrani 2013

Split	G	IP	ERA	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	tOPS+
Ryan Hanigan	7	26.2	3.38	3.44	.217	.284	.457	.741	.250	125
Devin Mesoraco	13	59.0	2.75	2.00	.200	.303	.333	.637	.259	98

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/22/2013.

In every case, Hanigan gets pitchers to throw more strikes. Whether that's framing, location, game calling, or pitcher confidence, Hanigan is getting more out of the pitching staff.
 As for the "Mesoraco needs more/consistent playing time" argument? There were 2 stretches in 2013 where Mes caught the vast majority of games, from 4/20-5/8 and 7/10-8/7. That's about 6 weeks of playing nearly every day. He hit .252/.310/.404. While that's better than his career numbers, it's similar to Hanigan's career numbers of .262/.359/.343.

I don't think it's controversial to say that Ryan Hanigan is a great defensive catcher. He's also capable of being an above-average hitter, assuming he comes back in 2014 healthy. Devin Mesoraco is an average at best defender to this point in his career. He's got a chance to be an above-average to very good hitter. But until Mes shows that he can hit on a consistent basis, Hanigan deserves to make the majority of the starts behind the dish.