First, several thousand caveats:
I'm not saying that I think that Ryan Hanigan should get 90% of the starts in 2014. I agree that Devin Mesoraco needs to get more playing time. Yes, Mes is the future. Yes, Hanigan sucked as a hitter in 2013. He was hurt all season, and I don't think his ability to hit just vanished overnight. If he returns even to a bit below his career averages, he'll be fine. His career BABIP is .283. His 2013 BABIP was .216.
What I want to show is that Ryan Hanigan's contributions to the Reds are being severely undervalued. We'll start with controlling the running game, which everyone agrees is important.
2013 stats:
| PB | WP | SBO | SB | CS | CS% | SB2 | CS2 | SB3 | CS3 | RBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Mesoraco | 4 | 22 | 1183 | 45 | 18 | 29% | 38 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 101 |
| Ryan Hanigan | 3 | 20 | 776 | 18 | 15 | 45% | 15 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 63 |
| League Average | 28% | ||||||||||
| Team Total | 8 | 44 | 2085 | 70 | 35 | 33% | 58 | 28 | 12 | 7 | 175 |
Hanigan throws out 45% of runners, and has led the league percentage-wise for the past two years. He only allowed 18 stolen bases in 72 games 2013, so not only is he throwing out runners, but they are barely trying against him. Mes threw out 29% of runners this year, up from 20% last year, but still allowed 45 stolen bases in 97 games in 2013. That's a runner nearly every other game advancing for free.
Some people dismiss the value of pitch framing, but stats have shown that turning a single ball into a strike is worth about 0.133 runs. Whether that amount is inflated or not, there is a definite skill that some catchers have that has a positive contribution to winning a baseball game. Mes rates as a slightly below average framer, while Hanigan rates as one of the top 10 in the game.
Here, we'll take a look at the numbers for all Reds pitchers for 2012 and 2013, to see if we can tease out some info. SO/BB would seem to be the most important stat for trying to determine whether a catcher can turn a couple of balls into strikes.
The numbers for 2012:
| Split | G | IP | tOPS+ | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Hanigan | 110 | 877.0 | 3.04 | 3.11 | .239 | .297 | .373 | .671 | .284 | 93 |
| Devin Mesoraco | 53 | 420.2 | 4.19 | 2.52 | .268 | .327 | .433 | .760 | .312 | 118 |
Hanigan's SO/BB is .59 better than Mesoraco's, with a corresponding 29 point drop in BA and 30 points worth of OBP.
2013:
| Split | G | IP | tOPS+ | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Hanigan | 72 | 589.2 | 3.40 | 3.18 | .227 | .288 | .388 | .676 | .261 | 98 |
| Devin Mesoraco | 97 | 782.0 | 3.40 | 2.69 | .243 | .309 | .383 | .692 | .288 | 103 |
Hanigan's SO/BB numbers are .49 better than Mesoraco's, contributing to a BA that's 16 points lower and an OBP that's 21 points lower. So Mes is closing the gap, but Hanigan is still much better at this point.
Hanigan's BABIP number is also lower, which may indicate he's getting pitchers to locate better on the edges of the zone.
But maybe Hanigan's numbers are skewed based on the pitchers. After all, he's Cueto's personal guy. Let's look at a few pitchers' numbers from 2013 where they both caught multiple games.
Latos 2013
| Split | G | IP | tOPS+ | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Hanigan | 6 | 40.2 | 3.10 | 4.89 | .242 | .288 | .403 | .690 | .307 | 105 |
| Devin Mesoraco | 26 | 170.0 | 3.18 | 2.92 | .248 | .309 | .354 | .663 | .305 | 99 |
Bailey 2013
| Split | G | IP | tOPS+ | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Hanigan | 20 | 136.0 | 2.71 | 3.79 | .190 | .253 | .298 | .551 | .235 | 68 |
| Devin Mesoraco | 5 | 23.0 | 7.83 | 1.82 | .367 | .436 | .622 | 1.059 | .425 | 218 |
Arroyo 2013
| Split | G | IP | tOPS+ | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Hanigan | 24 | 151.0 | 3.64 | 3.76 | .252 | .289 | .448 | .737 | .258 | 100 |
| Devin Mesoraco | 8 | 51.0 | 4.24 | 3.33 | .275 | .306 | .425 | .731 | .299 | 101 |
Cingrani 2013
| Split | G | IP | tOPS+ | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Hanigan | 7 | 26.2 | 3.38 | 3.44 | .217 | .284 | .457 | .741 | .250 | 125 |
| Devin Mesoraco | 13 | 59.0 | 2.75 | 2.00 | .200 | .303 | .333 | .637 | .259 | 98 |
In every case, Hanigan gets pitchers to throw more strikes. Whether that's framing, location, game calling, or pitcher confidence, Hanigan is getting more out of the pitching staff.
As for the "Mesoraco needs more/consistent playing time" argument? There were 2 stretches in 2013 where Mes caught the vast majority of games, from 4/20-5/8 and 7/10-8/7. That's about 6 weeks of playing nearly every day. He hit .252/.310/.404. While that's better than his career numbers, it's similar to Hanigan's career numbers of .262/.359/.343.
I don't think it's controversial to say that Ryan Hanigan is a great defensive catcher. He's also capable of being an above-average hitter, assuming he comes back in 2014 healthy. Devin Mesoraco is an average at best defender to this point in his career. He's got a chance to be an above-average to very good hitter. But until Mes shows that he can hit on a consistent basis, Hanigan deserves to make the majority of the starts behind the dish.
